Iran truce sparks futures rally as Nvidia mulls $250B OpenAI backstop

U.S. stock futures surged Monday and oil prices crashed over 5% after a weekend pause in U.S.-Iran attacks opened the door for diplomacy, cooling geopolitical fears. The relief rally sets up a critical week where Big Tech earnings from Apple, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft will test market nerves alongside a Federal Reserve meeting and fresh inflation data. In a stunning side plot, Nvidia is reportedly in talks to backstop $250 billion in financing for OpenAI's massive data center buildout.

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U.S. stock futures rally sharply as oil prices tumble on Iran-U.S. pause Nasdaq 100 futures gained 1.6% and Dow futures jumped nearly 500 points Sunday evening as WTI crude fell over 5% to around $84.84 a barrel. The geopolitical thaw offers a brief reprieve before a packed week of Big Tech earnings and a potentially decisive Federal Reserve meeting. 1 2 3

Nvidia reportedly in talks to provide $250 billion backstop for OpenAI data center The Wall Street Journal reports Nvidia is considering a massive financial guarantee to support OpenAI's planned $500 billion AI campus in Ohio. 'Big Short' investor Michael Burry described the financing structure as circular, highlighting deepening concerns over the sustainability of the AI spending boom. 4

Fed meeting, Big Tech earnings, and inflation data set up a make-or-break week The Federal Reserve's July 28–29 decision, quarterly results from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple, and the advance Q2 GDP and June PCE inflation prints all arrive this week. The CME FedWatch tool reflects a 35% probability of a rate hike on Wednesday, keeping bond yields and growth stocks on edge. 5 6 7

Chip stocks slide again on Friday, dragging Nasdaq lower while Dow gains The S&P 500 finished flat and the Nasdaq fell 0.6% as the Philadelphia semiconductor index dropped 4.5%. Intel slumped nearly 8% despite an upbeat outlook, and memory chip makers like SanDisk and Micron extended their recent selloff amid AI spending fatigue. 8 9 10