Plummeting Approval Ratings and China-Russia EEZ Exercises: Takaichi Administration Faces Trials as Diet Enters Final Phase

Takaichi Cabinet Approval Rating Plunges to 49.2%, First Time Below 50% Since Inception In an ANN opinion poll, the approval rating fell to 49.2%, down 10.9 points from the previous month, marking the first time it has dropped below 50% since the cabinet was formed. A Mainichi Shimbun survey also recorded a record low of 41%, with disapproval surpassing approval. The background is seen as backlash against the revision of the Imperial House Law and waning expectations for measures against high prices. 1234

China and Russia Warships Conduct Live-Fire Exercises in Japan's EEZ; Defense Minister Warns Chinese and Russian warships conducted live-fire shooting drills within Japan's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) off Okinotorishima. Defense Minister Koizumi, who is visiting the UK, revealed this on the 20th, expressing strong vigilance, stating that 'military cooperation between China and Russia is strengthening.' 5

Diet Extended but Only 4 Effective Days Left; LDP Executive Cancels Overseas Trip The Diet session has been extended until the 25th, but there are only four effective days of deliberation. As the ruling and opposition parties intensify their battle over the passage of the 'Sub-capital Bill,' LDP Policy Chief Kobayashi was forced to abruptly cancel an overseas trip due to strong protests from the opposition. 16

Caution Emerges Within LDP on Consumption Tax Cut; Funding Uncertain Regarding Prime Minister Takaichi's long-cherished goal of reducing the consumption tax on food and beverages, concerns have been raised successively by former senior LDP members, saying that 'a tax cut without funding would have a major impact on the market.' The prime minister intends to submit a related bill to the extraordinary Diet session in the autumn, but intraparty procedures are expected to be difficult. 7

Revised Imperial House Law: Only 26% Support Succession by Adopted Children's Offspring Regarding the revised Imperial House Law enacted on the 17th, a Mainichi Shimbun opinion poll showed that only 26% supported imperial succession by a child of an adopted heir from a former imperial family branch, while 41% opposed. In an ANN survey, 70% said discussions on a female emperor or an emperor of matrilineal lineage are 'necessary,' highlighting the lack of public understanding. 34

Submission of Revised Basic Ocean Law Bill to Current Diet Abandoned The revised Basic Ocean Law bill, aimed at strengthening the command tower function of ocean policy, is expected to be abandoned for submission to the current Diet due to the influence of ruling-opposition confrontation in the final phase. The Takaichi administration considers it an important bill, listed as one of the '17 strategic fields,' and aims for its enactment after the extraordinary Diet session in the autumn. 8