BOJ-estimated CPI exceeds 2% for 22nd straight month, further boosting September rate hike expectations

BOJ-estimated CPI exceeds 2% for 22nd straight month, supporting early rate hike expectations Consumer prices excluding special factors rose 2.3% year-on-year in July. The trimmed mean also returned to 2% for the first time in eight months, supporting market expectations of a September rate hike. 1

Nikkei rebounds for first time in 3 days, up over 300 points, with Fujikura and SBG contributing Tokyo stocks rebounded on the 25th, rising more than 300 points from the previous business day for the first time in three days. Gains in high-priced stocks such as Fujikura lifted the index. 23

Goldman Sachs brings forward BOJ rate hike forecast to September; long-term yields at 2.89% Former BOJ board member Adachi expects additional rate hikes in September and January. The 10-year JGB yield remained elevated at around 2.89%, with the market pricing in about an 80% chance of a 25bp rate hike in September. 45

Dollar-yen in lower 159 yen range, upside capped by intervention wariness; market waits ahead of key events At noon on the 25th in the Tokyo foreign exchange market, the dollar was firm around 159.36 yen. In addition to wariness over government/BOJ intervention, market participants were in a wait-and-see mood ahead of a speech by BOJ Deputy Governor Himino and the Jackson Hole meeting. On the morning of the 26th, it was around 159.20 yen. 67

Minister Jonanai says rate rise due to various factors; begins preparations for meeting with market In a press conference on the 25th, Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Minoru Jonanai said long-term interest rate rises are determined by various factors such as expected growth rates and geopolitical risks, pushing back against the view that they stem from the Takaichi administration's policies. He is preparing to hold an exchange of views with market participants. 8

Fed Chair Warsh to give first Jackson Hole speech since taking office on the 28th The market is focusing on his rebuttal to criticism of his communication style and his interest rate outlook in light of a global savings squeeze. With US long-term yields rising also affecting Japanese markets, his remarks could be a source of volatility. 910

June coincident index revised up to 118.5; assessment shows improvement The Cabinet Office announced on the 25th that the June coincident index was revised up by 0.3 point from the preliminary reading to 118.5. The assessment was kept at 'showing improvement.' 11