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Long-term interest rates hit roughly 30-year high of 2.930%, bond selling accelerates on BOJ September rate hike expectations

In the Tokyo bond market on the 17th, the long-term interest rate (new 10-year government bond yield) temporarily reached 2.930%, a roughly 30-year high. In addition to expectations of a BOJ rate hike in September (probability around 80%), rising crude oil prices due to Middle East tensions and concerns over fiscal deterioration under the Takaichi administration are accelerating bond selling. The April-June GDP released the same day showed an annualized 1.1% increase, marking a third consecutive quarter of growth, but personal consumption fell for the first time in eight quarters. The Nikkei average rose for a fifth straight session, driven by semiconductor-related buying, closing at 69,220 yen.

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Long-term interest rate temporarily rises to 2.930%, roughly 30-year high, on BOJ September rate hike expectations The new 10-year government bond yield reached levels not seen since September 1996, with 2-year and 5-year bonds also at record highs. In the market, views are strong that the BOJ will raise rates in September and then accelerate the pace thereafter, and further rises in fixed mortgage rates are also being warned about. 12345

April-June GDP rises 1.1% annualized, third straight quarter of growth, but personal consumption falls for first time in 8 quarters Growth was below market expectations, and personal consumption, which accounts for more than half of GDP, turned negative at -0.02% quarter-on-quarter, the first decline in eight quarters. If rising crude oil prices push up inflation and cool consumption, there is a risk of economic slowdown, which could also affect the BOJ's judgment on the pace of rate hikes. 6789

Nikkei average rises for 5th straight session, closes at 69,220 yen, led by semiconductor-related stocks It closed at 69,220.25 yen, up 506 yen from the previous weekend, recovering the 69,000 yen level. Buying in AI and semiconductor-related stocks pushed up the index, and solid corporate earnings also gave a sense of security for buying. Meanwhile, the TOPIX fell, with more declining issues. 1011

Japan Economic News

Compact morning updates on key Japanese economic news, including Nikkei, exchange rates, and monetary policy.